SUNFLOWER AND SUNFLOWER OIL PRODUCTION IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: TRENDS AND FORECASTS
DOI 10.12737/207304622024153160 УДК 311:322
Keywords:
gross sunflower harvest, sunflower yield, sunflower oil production, sunflower oil exports, forecast for the production of sunflower and sunflower oiAbstract
Currently, countries in the world are facing an acute problem of providing the population with food. Oil crops are of strategic importance for the Russian Federation to ensure food security of the country. Among oil crops, the main one is sunflower. Sunflower oil occupies an important place in the domestic consumption of the country, accounting for 75% of the total consumption of vegetable oil. Increasing the export of sunflower oil is an important economic task. The production of sunflower and sunflower oil have stable linear trends over time. Trend models with dummy variables characterizing weather conditions yielded the following forecast values: gross sunflower harvest in 2024 is forecast to be within the range of 13011 to 17445 thousand tons, in 2025 from 13497 to 17932 thousand tons; yield in 2024 from 15.5 to 19.2 c/ha, in 2025 from 15.8 to 19.6 c/ha; sunflower oil production in 2024 from 5.96 to 6.56 million tons, in 2025 from 6.2 to 6.8 million tons; sunflower oil exports in 2024 from 2.9 to 3.94 million tons, from 3.06 to 4.1 million tons. Analysis of the dynamics of the sunflower production structure by federal districts based on the Gatev coefficient, the Salai and V. M. Ryabtsev indices showed that the production structures of 2020, 2021 and 2022 do not have statistically significant differences compared to the structure of 2015, i.e. the territorial distribution of production capacities for the period under study is relatively stable in dynamics.
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