PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOGISTICS ROUTES IN GRAIN MARKET

УДК: 339.18 DOI: 10.31588/2073-0462-2026-21-2-124-133 EDN: UEIBOA

Abstract

This article presents the results of a study examining the challenges and prospects for developing logistics routes for Russian grain exports in the face of increasing geopolitical risks. The aim of the study is to identify opportunities for diversifying grain transportation routes from Russia to foreign markets while reducing dependence on geopolitical risks. Formal logic methods — analysis, synthesis and comparison — are used. The analyzed data includes reports from investment and infrastructure companies and news agency publications. Key infrastructure challenges facing the development of Russian grain exports are identified: insufficient railway capacity, particularly on the eastern route, the need to modernize port terminals and high dependence on weather conditions on the northern routes. The study concludes that the inertial growth of grain exports through the port terminals of Azov-Black Sea basin (86% of all Russian grain exports in 2023-2024), taking into account fluctuations in global market conditions, creates a significant obstacle to increasing its volume, even with increased government subsidies to exporters. To overcome these limitations, key areas for diversifying Russian grain exports are proposed: eastern, northern and southern. Projected grain export volumes by 2035 are presented, which, in an optimistic scenario associated with the implementation of major investment infrastructure projects, these volumes are expected to increase by 38.86 million tons (54.04%), accompanied by a decrease in the share of the export route through Azov-Black Sea basin from 86.1% to 62%. Recommendations are provided for the development and diversification of grain export routes, including legislatively extending the period of unchangeable tax conditions in agreements on the protection and promotion of capital investments to 30 years, developing concession agreements for modernization of grain terminals within the framework of public-private partnerships, simplifying administrative procedures and protecting the rights of foreign investors, including in the digital modernization of ports and developing state programs to support the creation of small and medium-sized terminals.