IMPACT OF CRITICAL IMPORTS ON THE DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS OF REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
DOI 10.31588/2073-0462-2026-21-1-173-182 УДК / UDC 332.05 EDN: ZOEMJS
Keywords:
agricultural sector, region, critical imports, sanctions restrictions, scenario forecasting, modeling macroeconomic relationships, transformation of foreign markets.Abstract
In the context of increased turbulence in the global economic system, issues related to the development of models assessing the impact of import vulnerability on the development prospects of regional and industrial complexes have become increasingly relevant. Despite the relatively high level of elaboration of this research question, it should be noted that further development of methodological approaches in this area is necessary. Greater attention is required to the development of such models, with a focus on the regional and industrial research levels. Furthermore, the increasing blockade of access to foreign markets for a number of countries necessitates the adaptation of methodological tools for studying import substitution factors and their inclusion in the design of industrial development models. Based on the factors examined, the study identified the sensitivity of agro-industrial sector of the Republic of Tatarstan to adjustments in critical imports used in the economic activities of agricultural enterprises in the region (the Republic of Tatarstan). Using multivariate analysis methods, the HS nomenclature group 8433 “Machines or mechanisms for harvesting or threshing agricultural crops, including balers, presses for packing straw or hay into bales; mowing machines or lawn mowers; machines for cleaning, sorting, or grading eggs or fruit” was assigned to this category. It was found that a 1% reduction in imports of the studied product nomenclature entails a 0.39% decrease in the volume of shipped goods of own production in the agro-industrial sector of the studied constituent entity of the Russian Federation. Elements of scientific novelty are expressed in the author’s approach to identifying critical imports for the regional agricultural sector and, based on this, developing a predictive model for the sector’s development, taking into account potential risks in the form of supply restrictions for critically important commodities.
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